Bobby Kaltenbach

News Editor

    On January 3, Iowa caucus goers selected Rick Santorum as their choice for the Republican Presidential Nominee. This year marked the closest race the caucus has ever seen, with Santorum garnering 24.6% of the vote, less than a tenth of a point higher than former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who won 24.5%. Ron Paul came in third, posting a respectable 21.4%. Newt Gingrich, who had gained momentum in December and was seen as the candidate most likely to challenge Romney for the nomination, was supported by only 13.3% of Iowa voters. Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, and Jon Huntsman were the least popular choices, garnering 10.3%, 5%, and 0.6%, respectively.

          Santorum’s narrow victory came as a major disappointment to the supporters of Romney, despite the fact that he was still comfortably ahead of the former Pennsylvania Senator in the national polls. Romney’s supporters were hoping that an easy win would provide the momentum needed to make him the clear choice, but the surge of Santorum and Paul prevented him from gaining the edge he needed.

    Romney and Santorum’s strong performances also made them targets for the other candidates. Gringrich publicly attacked Romney for his ostensibly inconsistent record on abortion, and Santorum came under fire for racially charged comments he made about his position on welfare.

    Addressing a crowd at a rally in New Hampshire, he said, “I don’t want to make black people’s lives better” through financial aid. After drawing criticism for the comments, Santorum denied using the term “black people,” despite the fact that the speech had been caught on video.

     In light of her poor showing, Michelle Bachmann suspended her campaign on January 4. She vowed to continue fighting the Obama administration from the sidelines, however, calling it “the playground of left-wing social engineering.”

    The New Hampshire Primary, held on January 10, proved to be more conclusive. Romney won handily, gaining 39.3% of the vote. His two closest competitors were Paul and Huntsman, with 23% and 17%, respectively. Huntsman’s loss was especially disappointing for his supporters, as he had invested an enormous amount of time and money in trying to win the state’s primary.

    Huntsman’s failure to win in New Hampshire led him to officially drop out of the race on January 16, offering his endorsement to Romney. Former front-runner Rick Perry followed suit, suspending his campaign three days later. He opted to endorse Gingrich, cementing the former House Speaker as Romney’s closest remaining rival.

    On January 21, the South Carolina Primary opened amidst a wave of controversy for both Romney and Gingrich. Romney was criticized for failing to release his tax returns, causing many people to suspect that he may be hiding something. For his part, Gingrich was accused by an ex-wife of asking for an “open marriage,” meaning that both partners could engage in extramarital relationships without consequence.

    Despite the criticism levied toward him, South Carolina voters came out overwhelmingly in favor of Gingrich. When the final votes were tallied, Gingrich had defeated Romney by a margin of 13 percentage points. Santorum came in third, with 17% of the vote, followed by Paul, who garnered 13%.

    What do these results mean? Certainly, Romney’s camp must be satisfied with his easy win in New Hampshire, especially after the loss in Iowa. Gingrich’s supporters must also be pleased with his win in South Carolina energizing his campaign going into the final months of the Primary. But to Janet Daley of The Telegraph, the races’ real significance lies not in their outcomes, but rather in the low voter turnout in each state. “The low-ish turnout  suggests something profoundly worrying for the Republicans. That is, that their entire field of candidates is ceasing to generate any real excitement or  commitment in the electorate. Obama may have disappointed his own followers, alienated much of the independent vote and infuriated the right-of-centre in the country (which constitutes a huge cohort of the population), but the Republicans are offering no one who inspires the country with confidence.”

    This viewpoint is supported by Helmut Norpoth of The Huffington Post, who uses a system called the “Primary Model” to pit Obama against the leading Republican contenders. Based on the relative voter turnout in the Democratic and Republican primaries so far, the system predicts that Obama would beat Romney 53.2% to 46.8% of the two-party vote. Norpoth claims that the Primary Model has successfully predicted the winner of the popular vote in all presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996.

    Romney and Gingrich are the front-runners going into February, and it will be interesting to see whether Paul and Santorum will be able to find the support necessary to keep them in the race. The next two elections will be held in Florida, on January 31, and Nevada, on February 4.